This interview is with Maxim Sheaib, Executive Leader in Business Strategy, Policy Execution, and Geoeconomic Systems.

Maxim Sheaib, Senior Strategic Advisor & Multidisciplinary Leader

Can you introduce yourself and share your background in geopolitics and business? What unique perspective do you bring to these fields?

I’ve always believed that the most important insights come from standing at the intersections where different worlds meet. I come from a background where understanding power dynamics was practical, lived, and constantly evolving. I worked in the private and public sectors, and the cross-matrix relationship between both always existed in my work.

Just look at how a single regulation like a tariff or export control can trigger disruption, shift the flow of capital, or spark a reaction from another country. We saw this during COVID, and we’re seeing it now in energy markets, commodities, and technology exports tied to current conflicts. These aren’t isolated events. They’re deeply connected moves on a much larger board.

My work has taken me across sectors and borders, giving me a firsthand look at how political shifts impact markets and how business decisions can quietly influence global plots. I’ve focused on how influence is built through diplomacy, conflict, technology, economics, and even perception in geopolitics. In business, I’ve helped organizations navigate uncertain environments by reading deeper trends, looking beyond what’s on the news, and interpreting what’s underneath it.

What I bring is a systems-level view. I don’t just see headlines; I see how decisions are made behind closed doors, how they cascade into global supply chains, and how they ultimately affect people on the ground. That perspective helps companies think beyond the quarter, prepare for what’s next, and not just react to what’s now.

How did your career journey lead you to become an expert in geopolitics and its impact on global business? Were there any pivotal moments or experiences that shaped your path?

My journey into geopolitics and global business didn’t happen by accident. It was shaped by real-world complexity, shifting environments, and the responsibility of making decisions that impacted not just balance sheets but entire communities. I’ve worked across over a dozen countries, leading large-scale business projects to national-level initiatives. Every step in my career added another layer to how I see the world and understand the effect of political and economic shifts.

A few pivotal moments influenced my career. Sometimes, disruption brings unexpected opportunities. During COVID, while the world was shutting down, I led Kim Gloves through a complete turnaround, scaling it from a struggling business to a global supplier of medical gloves. That experience was a sharp reminder that in international crises, bad news for some can be good news for others, especially if you know where to look and how to move quickly.

Another interesting moment was during my time in Qatar, where I led a portfolio of national projects during the FIFA World Cup preparations and developed strategic initiatives for the Government’s Tourism sector. I wasn’t just executing strategic projects but also navigating regulatory frameworks, multi-ministerial coordination, and aligning public policies with business outcomes. That showed me how closely government decisions and private-sector success are intertwined.

One of the defining moments was living through the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, where I have strong personal and professional ties, and witnessing the economic and human impact unfold. More recently, the conflict in the Middle East has added another layer of urgency to everything from policy to business continuity. In those moments, you realize how important it is to act or react and decide whether to be proactive or reactive. Geopolitics, for me, has always been less about theory and more about the consequences of power, policy, and perception. Whether it’s a global health crisis, a war, or a sudden tariff, I’ve seen how one government decision can shake investor confidence, stall economies, or reshape entire industries overnight. That’s not abstract. That’s real, and I’ve lived it.

In your experience, how has the interplay between geopolitics and business evolved over the past decade? Can you share a specific instance where you’ve seen this change firsthand?

A notable example is the U.S.-China trade tensions that escalated between 2017 and 2023. During this period, China’s share in U.S. imports declined by 8 percentage points, while the U.S. share in China’s exports dropped by about 4 percentage points. This shift directly resulted from increased tariffs and trade barriers, compelling companies to reevaluate and diversify their supply chains to mitigate risks associated with geopolitical uncertainties. For instance, a study in the Oxford Review of Economic Policy examines the evolving nature of global economic governance, emphasizing the profound impact geopolitical shifts have on international trade and financial policies. Another significant instance is the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on global trade. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, direct trade between Russia and Western countries collapsed due to sanctions and geopolitical tensions. This disruption increased energy prices and supply chain challenges, affecting various industries worldwide. These examples highlight how geopolitical events can immediately alter business landscapes, emphasizing the need for companies to remain agile and informed in a rapidly evolving global environment.

Many business leaders struggle to navigate geopolitical uncertainties. What’s one actionable strategy you’ve successfully used to help a company adapt to sudden geopolitical shifts?

The worst time to prepare for a storm is when you’re already in the middle of it. When the COVID-19 pandemic hit, I was already co-leading a rubber glove manufacturing business in Thailand, which, at that time, became right in the center of what suddenly was one of the most in-demand industries in the world. This was one of the rare moments where geopolitics, public health, and business collided at full speed, and most were caught off guard by supply and logistics disruptions, but we built agility from the start. As demand for PPE exploded globally, countries began limiting exports, shipping prices skyrocketed, and supply chains were choked by bureaucracy and sudden restrictions. We didn’t wait for things to stabilize. We adjusted contract terms weekly and ensured we had extremely fair prices compared to competitors who took advantage of their customers. Despite the crisis, we kept our values and principles at the core of our business. We distributed through alternative ports and built multiple relationships across borders to fast-track clearances. This kept buyers and customers loyal to us for years beyond the crisis. One strategy I used that made a real difference was shifting our market focus in real time based on government policy and trade data. When the European Union and the U.S. began restrictions, we looked at countries that had eased import restrictions, fast-tracked medical supplies, and offered subsidies for PPE contracts. We leaned into this information and assisted our buyers with distribution channels, pivoting the order process.

If we look at the top advisory firms in the world, McKinsey found that companies that act early on macro-political signals outperform their peers by as much as 30 percent in market valuation during volatile periods. Leaders who build real-time geopolitical awareness into their strategy are shaping their response before the crisis hits. KPMG Australia’s geopolitics partner highlighted the need for companies to engage in scenario modeling and stay informed in real time about critical regions. This proactive stance enables businesses to anticipate potential disruptions and implement strategies to maintain operational stability.

You’ve likely witnessed how geopolitical tensions can disrupt supply chains. Can you describe a challenging situation you’ve faced in this area and how you helped resolve it?

One moment that stood out was when a shipment of U.S.-made N95 masks intended for German police was suddenly rerouted to the U.S. while passing through Bangkok, leading German officials to accuse the U.S. of “modern piracy.” Simultaneously, within the European Union, member states like Germany and France imposed export restrictions on personal protective equipment, disrupting the internal flow of critical supplies and drawing criticism for undermining EU solidarity. These geopolitical actions highlighted the vulnerabilities in our supply chains. In response, we intensified our efforts to diversify sourcing and logistics, ensuring our products could reach those in need despite the turbulent landscape. To meet the high demand, we had to increase our production facilities and ensure that we purchased equipment from at least three suppliers for parts. Luckily, we did because one of the suppliers never delivered, which caused some delays, but our contingency plan worked. You understand how connected geopolitics and business are when you’re watching your products get caught in the crossfire of international politics.

In your view, what’s the most underestimated geopolitical factor affecting global business today? How can leaders better prepare for its potential impact?

The most underestimated factor right now is how governments use regulation as a tool of influence. It doesn’t make headlines the way conflicts or sanctions do, but it has just as much power to shift markets.

I’ve seen this clearly while working across health, tourism, and investment sectors in different countries. Politics often shapes regulations that seem technical on the surface. One region might introduce strict licensing or data rules that make it harder for foreign companies to enter. Another might quietly adjust standards to favor domestic players. These things rarely come with announcements, but they completely reshape the business environment.

The challenge is that many leaders still treat regulation as something for the legal team to handle. It is a strategic signal. It tells you what governments prioritize, what sectors are becoming sensitive, and where pressure builds.

To prepare, leaders need to build awareness early. This means tracking regulatory trends, understanding the political context behind them, and adjusting strategy before they become a barrier. If you wait to react, you are already too late.

We often hear about the negative impacts of geopolitical events on business. Can you share an example from your experience where a geopolitical change created unexpected opportunities for a company?

My experience running Kim Gloves in Thailand during the COVID-19 pandemic is a clear example. Yes, we were in the PPE space when demand was exploding globally, and in some ways, it looked like we were in the right place at the right time. But being in the right place isn’t enough. Many manufacturers have the same opportunity. Many failed to scale, got stuck in export bans, or lost contracts because they couldn’t move fast enough.

How we read the geopolitical signals and acted early made the difference. The US had just invoked the Defense Production Act, and the EU began tightening exports. Some European countries were even seizing shipments at their borders. That meant many traditional suppliers were cut off, and new markets were left exposed.

Instead of waiting for demand, we tracked where policy was shifting, where tenders were opening, and which regions were underserved. Within months, we scaled production immediately and secured contracts with multiple suppliers. We secured contracts in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia. We also worked directly with key stakeholders to keep supply moving when other routes were blocked.

So yes, the global situation created the conditions. But the opportunity came from what we did with it. We turned policy trends into a growth strategy. And that’s the lesson. Geopolitical shifts don’t just create problems. They expose gaps. The real advantage comes from seeing them early and having the courage to act before others do.

How do you approach advising businesses on long-term strategy when the geopolitical landscape is so volatile? Is there a framework or process you’ve developed?

The way I see it, long-term strategy in a volatile world isn’t about predicting the future. It’s about preparing for multiple futures at once and building a business that can move in any direction with purpose, speed, and control.

I use a model I call Strategic Elasticity. It’s not a rigid framework. It’s a mindset paired with a decision-making structure that allows leaders to plan clearly, act flexibly, and respond without losing direction.

It starts with mapping geopolitical tension points, not just where they are, but where they are evolving. This includes energy flows, digital policy, defense spending, trade corridors, and election cycles. But we don’t stop at risk. We also track what I call strategic inflection zones. These are areas where regulation, capital, or public pressure is likely to shift in the next twelve to thirty-six months. Think of it as plotting both the storm and the sunlight.

The second layer is where it becomes tactical. I push businesses to build modular strategies. Instead of designing one big move, we create a core strategy with layered pivots tested through simulations based on geopolitical scenarios. This lets leadership make changes without starting over. It is like engineering a system that absorbs pressure rather than breaks under it.

The final piece is the decision velocity. A strategy is as strong as your ability to update it in real time. That is why I bring geopolitical intelligence into the executive loop, and not as a static report, but as a live function. We track trends, read policy drafts, monitor trade and diplomatic shifts, and adjust positioning before the news cycle catches up.

In my experience, companies that thrive in this environment do not have the best five-year plan. They are the ones who know how to adapt without losing their core logic. And that is exactly what Strategic Elasticity delivers: resilience without drift and vision without rigidity.

Looking ahead, what geopolitical trend do you believe will have the most significant impact on global business in the next five years? How can business leaders start preparing now?

The most significant geopolitical trend shaping global business over the next five years is the acceleration of geoeconomic fragmentation. This is not theoretical. It is measurable, underway, and structural. It is about strategic positioning in a world where the map of business opportunity will increasingly mirror the map of political alignment. Leaders who understand this shift early will not just protect their business. They will shape the next chapter of global growth.

According to the IMF, long-term fragmentation could reduce global GDP by up to 7 percent, and in highly tech-dependent sectors, the losses could reach 12 percent of GDP. That translates to over 6 trillion dollars of economic loss globally.

What makes this fragmentation trend so powerful is that it reaches across three key dimensions at once:

Trade realignment: According to the WTO, the share of global trade among geopolitically aligned countries has increased by 4 to 6 percentage points since 2016. Countries are quietly redrawing their supply chains based not on cost but on political alignment.

Technology bifurcation: The semiconductor ecosystem is splitting. The US CHIPS Act and allied export controls are decoupling high-end tech from China, while China is investing over $1.4 trillion in strategic tech self-sufficiency.

Financial fragmentation: The role of the US dollar in global reserves has declined from 73 percent in 2001 to under 59 percent today, as countries look to diversify financial dependencies. Meanwhile, BRICS nations are openly discussing alternative payment systems.

To prepare for this future, business leaders must build three strategic capabilities:

Regulatory agility: Compliance is no longer local. Leaders must anticipate how their business will operate across diverging legal and ethical frameworks, especially in ESG, data, AI, and health standards.

Supply chain sovereignty: Beyond diversification, this means re-engineering value chains around resilience, trust, and dual sourcing. Strategic redundancy is now a competitive advantage.

Geopolitical literacy in the boardroom: Having geopolitical awareness in policy teams is no longer enough. Scenario planning and early signal tracking must be built into the C-suite. Boardrooms need geopolitical analysts as urgently as they once needed economists.

Thanks for sharing your knowledge and expertise. Is there anything else you’d like to add?

We are entering a decade where leadership will be defined less by how much someone knows and more by how well they can adapt, interpret, and move with clarity through complexity. The lines between business, policy, and geopolitics are no longer blurred. They are fused and becoming integrated. Executives can no longer afford to treat these areas as separate. Every investment, every expansion, and every partnership now carries a political dimension, whether they realize it or not.

My final thought is this: In times of uncertainty, the advantage does not belong to those with the most data. It belongs to those who ask better questions, challenge assumptions early, and design organizations that are profitable, politically aware, socially credible, and structurally resilient.

That is not just a smart strategy. It is long-term survival.